Facebook Earnings: What to Look For From FB

2 years ago 230

Key Takeaways

  • Analysts estimation EPS of $3.19 vs. $2.71 successful Q3 FY 2020.
  • Monthly progressive users are expected to emergence YOY.
  • Revenue is expected summation astatine a steadfast pace, but maturation is seen slowing compared to the astir caller 2 quarters.

Facebook Inc. (FB) is coming disconnected of 2 consecutive quarters of robust nett and gross gains, and present is focusing connected the adjacent signifier of longterm maturation for the company. Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Mark Zuckerberg says that maturation volition beryllium driven by the "metaverse," an expansive virtual satellite that volition beryllium a successor to the mobile net and substance a caller question of exertion investment. In the virtual metaverse, for example, radical would beryllium capable to effort connected apparel featured successful stores oregon spell to concerts with friends, conscionable arsenic they would successful the existent world. Facebook plans to make arsenic galore arsenic 10,000 jobs successful the European Union implicit the adjacent 5 years to physique the metaverse.

Investors are apt to absorption some connected Facebook's caller fiscal show and aboriginal maturation plans erstwhile the institution reports net connected Oct. 25, 2021 for Q3 FY 2021. Analysts expect net per stock (EPS) and gross to turn astatine a accelerated pace, albeit slowing from the gait successful caller quarters.

Investors volition besides beryllium focusing connected Facebook's monthly progressive users (MAUs), a cardinal metric that measures the size of the company's idiosyncratic base. Analysts expect the company's MAUs to emergence compared to the year-ago quarter, but the gait of maturation is expected to slow.

Shares of Facebook person underperformed the broader marketplace implicit the past year. The banal outperformed from astir precocious May to aboriginal October aft lagging the marketplace for astir of the the past 12 months. But successful caller weeks the banal has begun to underperform the marketplace again. Facebook's shares person provided a full instrumentality of 27.4% implicit the past year, beneath the S&P 500's full instrumentality of 31.8%.

Source: TradingView.

Facebook Earnings

Facebook reported Q2 FY 2021 earnings that bushed analysts' estimates. EPS roseate 100.9% compared to the year-ago quarter, the fastest gait since Q1 FY 2020. Revenue grew 55.6% YOY, the fastest gait since the 3rd 4th of FY 2016. The institution said successful its net study that it expects 3rd and 4th fourth results to decelerate importantly connected a sequential basis.

In Q1 FY 2021, Facebook reported net and gross that bushed statement estimates. EPS accrued 92.8% YOY, accelerating for the 2nd consecutive 4th successful a row. Revenue expanded 47.6% compared to the year-ago quarter, marking the fastest gait of maturation since Q1 FY 2018. In its net report, the institution highlighted its beardown advertisement gross growth, which was driven by increases successful the mean terms per advertisement arsenic good arsenic the full fig of ads delivered.

Analysts expect Facebook's net and gross to proceed increasing successful Q3 FY 2021, albeit astatine a decelerating gait compared to caller quarters. EPS is expected to emergence 17.7%, the slowest maturation successful 7 quarters. And gross is expected to emergence 37.6%, a deceleration from the erstwhile 2 quarters. For full-year FY 2021, EPS is expected to summation 40.1%, slowing from a gait of 57.1% successful FY 2020. Annual gross is expected to grow 39.1%, which would beryllium the fastest gait of maturation since FY 2017.

Facebook Key Stats
  Estimate for Q3 FY 2021 Q3 FY 2020 Q3 FY 2019
Earnings Per Share ($)  3.19 2.71 2.12
Revenue ($B) 29.5 21.5 17.7
Monthly Active Users (B) 2.9 2.7  2.5

Source: Visible Alpha; Facebook (Q3 FY 2020; Q3 FY 2019).

The Key Metric

As mentioned above, investors volition besides beryllium focused connected Facebook's MAUs, a cardinal metric providing a measurement of the size of the company's planetary progressive idiosyncratic base. Facebook defines a MAU arsenic a registered and logged-in idiosyncratic who visited Facebook done its website oregon a mobile device, oregon utilized its Messenger app sometime during the 30 days of the measurement period. Facebook derives the bulk of its gross done selling advertizing abstraction connected its societal media sites and apps to marketers. The bigger its idiosyncratic base, the much charismatic its level is to advertisers. A bigger idiosyncratic basal besides makes it easier to pull caller users arsenic radical privation to beryllium connected Facebook due to the fact that their friends are connected it, a classical illustration of the network effect. Another related metric is Facebook's mean gross per idiosyncratic (ARPU), a gauge of however good the institution is monetizing its idiosyncratic base.

Facebook's MAUs person continued to turn implicit the past respective years, but the gait has gradually slowed. MAUs roseate 16.8% successful FY 2016 to a full of 1.9 billion. By FY 2019, full MAUs were 2.5 billion, and the gait of yearly maturation had slowed to 7.6%. Growth successful MAUs accelerated successful FY 2020 to 12.0% amid the pandemic arsenic radical spent much clip online portion sheltering astatine home. But it has been decelerating again successful FY 2021, slowing to a gait of 9.6% successful the archetypal 4th and again to 7.4% successful the second. Analysts expect maturation to dilatory to a gait of 6.6% successful Q3 FY 2021.

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