Migrants Not Responsible for Latest COVID-19 Surge

Infectious illness experts accidental debased vaccination rates, absorption to protective measures specified arsenic wearing a disguise and the highly transmissible delta variant are driving the existent surge of COVID-19 cases successful the U.S.

But with galore Republicans criticizing the Biden medication for the emergence of immigrants, immoderate of whom are COVID-19-positive, galore Americans — peculiarly the unvaccinated and Republicans — seemingly judge those immigrants are driving the country’s COVID-19 surge.

A recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation recovered that 55% of Republicans accidental “immigrants and tourists bringing COVID-19 into the U.S.” is “a large crushed for the existent precocious fig of COVID-19 cases successful the U.S.”

Among unvaccinated adults, 40% listed “immigrants and tourists bringing COVID-19 into the U.S.” arsenic driving up the COVID-19 lawsuit counts.

It’s nary wonder, fixed immoderate of the rhetoric coming from Republicans, including Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and others, informing astir COVID-19 being dispersed passim the U.S. by immigrants.

“Part of the occupation is the confederate borderline is unfastened and we’ve got 88 countries that are coming crossed the borderline and they don’t person vaccines truthful nary of them are vaccinated and they’re getting dispersed passim the country,” Reynolds said in July.

“No elected authoritative is doing much to alteration the transmission of COVID successful America than Joe Biden with his unfastened borders policies,” DeSantis said successful a fundraising letter successful August.

“The Biden medication has been releasing immigrants successful South Texas that person been exposing Texans to COVID. Some of those radical person been enactment connected buses, taking that COVID to different states successful the United States,” Abbott told CNBC in March.

There was a surge of caller COVID-19 cases that began successful mid- to precocious summer. The fig of caller cases per time jumped from astir 12,000 successful mid-June to astir 160,000 successful precocious August and aboriginal September, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Data Tracker. Simultaneously, determination has been a surge of amerciable migration astatine the Southwest border, with apprehensions of amerciable border-crossers jumping from astir 75,000 successful January to much than 200,000 successful July, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

But experts accidental the second is not driving the former.

In an Oct. 3 interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” big Dana Bash asked Dr. Anthony Fauci, manager of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, if the bulk of Republicans surveyed by KFF are misinformed.

“Are immigrants a large crushed wherefore COVID-19 is spreading successful the U.S.?” Bash asked.

“No, perfectly not, Dana,” Fauci said. “I mean, if you conscionable look astatine the information and look astatine the radical who person gotten infected, look astatine the radical who are successful the hospital, look astatine the radical who’ve died, this is not driven by immigrants. This is the occupation wrong our country, the aforesaid mode it’s a occupation with different countries passim the world.

“I mean, the idea, erstwhile you person 700,000 Americans dead, and millions and millions and millions of Americans getting infected, that you don’t privation to look extracurricular to the problem,” Fauci said. “The occupation is wrong our ain country. Certainly, immigrants tin get infected, but they’re not the driving unit of this. Let’s look world here.”

Experts accidental the grounds is connected Fauci’s side.

What the Data connected Cases Show

According to the CDC’s COVID Tracker, virtually each of the caller cases emerging successful the U.S. are caused by the highly transmissible delta variant.

“I person not seen immoderate phylogenetic awesome that Delta arrived from Mexico oregon from South America – successful fact, rather the other – the variants that person dominated precocious southbound of the USA are precise chiseled from Delta – 20B/732A successful Mexico until mid-May, Gamma & Lamba successful Peru, Argentina, & Chile, Gamma successful Brazil, Mu successful Colombia,” Emma Hodcroft, a postdoctoral researcher astatine the University of Bern successful Switzerland and a co-developer of the virus-tracking site Nextstrain, said successful an email to FactCheck.org. “And we person not seen these predominate astatine each successful the USA, arsenic 1 mightiness expect if immigrants carrying these variants were the starring origin of the lawsuit rises successful the USA.”

Graphs of variants emerging successful assorted countries implicit clip — based connected information from GISAID, an international, unfastened root repository of viral genomes — tin beryllium viewed on a website created by Hodcroft, who referred to the conception of immigrants driving the COVID-19 dispersed successful the U.S. arsenic a “pernicious spot of misinformation.”

“Instead, the emergence successful cases successful the USA has mostly been tied to Delta, which was precise apt introduced from the UK and India initially, and astir apt from different countries crossed Europe and past the satellite soon after, arsenic it dispersed comparatively rapidly,” Hodcroft told us. “Delta really expanded comparatively precocious into South America, perchance due to the fact that of overmuch little adjacent ties to the UK and India, and truthful is precise improbable to beryllium the root of Delta for the USA.”

Dr. Michele Heisler, aesculapian manager astatine Physicians for Human Rights and a prof of interior medicine and nationalist wellness astatine the University of Michigan, agreed.

“As Dr. Fauci emphasized, determination is nary epidemiological grounds that migrants astatine the U.S. confederate borderline are driving the dispersed of the delta variant oregon earlier variants that origin COVID-19,” Heisler told america via email. “When you look astatine the blistery spots of corruption with COVID-19 they are each locations with precise debased rates of vaccination. That is the communal denominator. Many of these hotspots are acold from immoderate planetary borderline and successful agrarian areas with precise small beingness of migrants. Other areas close connected an planetary borderline specified arsenic the California borderline with Mexico person not had precocious rates of infection. Epidemiological information besides suggests that the delta variant dispersed successful the United States earlier it dispersed successful Mexico oregon Latin America.”

As of Oct. 8, California had conscionable 16 caller coronavirus cases per 100,000 residents reported successful the past 7 days, 2nd lone to Connecticut arsenic the states with the lowest corruption rates, according to the New York Times’ COVID-19 mapping site.

Data from the Pan American Health Organization suggests the dispersed of the delta variant came from the U.S. to Mexico, Heisler said.

In aboriginal July, the Americas Society/Council of the Americas reported: “The Delta variant’s dispersed to Latin America has frankincense acold been limited. Mexico, present experiencing its own uptick successful contagion, has the highest confirmed caseload of the variant successful the portion with conscionable astir 600 cases, apt due to the fact that of its proximity to the United States wherever the variant is rapidly spreading.”

Although nearly all of the COVID-19 cases successful the U.S. presently are caused by the delta variant — deemed by the CDC arsenic a “variant of concern” — the CDC besides is monitoring a fig of other variants in the U.S. At least some of them appear to have made their way to the U.S. via planetary travel, not immigration.

Heisler said Americans pointing the digit astatine immigrants crossing the Southwest borderline illegally are simply scapegoating.

“All credible sources of grounds constituent to the aforesaid cause: Low vaccination rates are the main operator of coronavirus spread,” Heisler said. “This is simply a pandemic of the unvaccinated — a nationalist wellness contented and not a borderline issue. Officials who scapegoat asylum seekers for COVID-19 are ignoring subject portion embracing xenophobia and racist tropes equating immigrants with illness vectors. They should alternatively absorption connected improving vaccine uptake and advancing common-sense nationalist wellness measures successful their communities.”

The Situation successful McAllen, Texas

Nonetheless, the continuing surge of immigrants astatine the Southwest borderline — thousands of whom person tested affirmative for COVID-19 — is raising alarm, peculiarly among immoderate who unrecorded successful the U.S. adjacent the Mexican border.

According to an Aug. 4 press release from the metropolis of McAllen, Texas, Catholic Charities and American Medical Response identified much than 7,000 COVID-19-positive immigrants brought to the metropolis since mid-February (from a full of astir 87,000 who passed done the city). Although those who tested affirmative were separated and quarantined, officials interest astir the galore immigrants who are not apprehended.

Most apprehended immigrants are expelled rapidly nether a nationalist wellness law, Title 42. The Trump administration began using the instrumentality successful March 2020 to expel radical astatine the borderline to forestall the dispersed of COVID-19. President Joe Biden has continued its usage — controversially — and is fighting successful the courts to support utilizing the law. During the Trump administration, from March 2020 to January 2021 — implicit 11 months — determination were much than 444,000 Title 42 expulsions on the Southwest border. Over the adjacent 7 months — February done August — determination person been more than 690,000 on Biden’s watch.

The press release from the borderline metropolis of McAllen says the “sheer fig of immigrants being released into the metropolis has go a crisis.”

The largest fig of apprehensions are being made successful the Rio Grande sector, which includes Hidalgo County’s McAllen.

Hidalgo County officials, speaking connected Aug. 5 astatine a press conference, agreed that the surge of migration astatine the borderline has go a crisis, but warned residents not to blasted immigrants for the county’s rising COVID-19 cases.

Hidalgo County Judge Richard Cortez, a Democrat who is the county’s apical elected official, said helium has seen “increasing grounds connected societal media and idiosyncratic connection that radical privation to blasted the existent surge of immigrants for our uptick successful COVID cases. That simply is not true.”

About 90% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 successful Hidalgo County are unvaccinated, helium said.

“This is simply a occupation of our own,” helium said. “The COVID numbers are going up due to the fact that radical inactive are not wanting to get vaccinated.”

At the property conference, Ivan Melendez, nationalist wellness authorization for Hidalgo County, said the rising COVID-19 cases successful the region are nary antithetic than successful different places astir the country.

“Are the migrating folks portion of the problem? Absolutely. The migrating folks are portion of the problem. Are they the problem? No,” Melendez said.

Melendez pointed to positivity rates among the migrants, which helium said “are astir precisely the positivity rates here.”

“Is this a pandemic of the migrants? No. It’s a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” Melendez said.

We spoke to Melendez by phone, and helium said that similar different section residents, helium is frustrated by the national effect to the surge successful immigrants astatine the border.

“Of people that is going to interaction the section people,” helium said. “You can’t contradict that. There indispensable beryllium immoderate impact. But are they the origin of the problem? No.”

Migrants marque up astir 3% of those hospitalized for COVID-19 successful the county, helium said, and “we are not seeing caller mutations on the borderline that person not been seen elsewhere successful the U.S.”

“I support hearing, ‘If it weren’t for these immigrants we wouldn’t person this problem,’” Melendez said. “Here successful the epicenter, that’s conscionable not factual. It’s conscionable not true.”

Editor’s note: SciCheck’s COVID-19/Vaccination Project is made imaginable by a assistance from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The instauration has no control over FactCheck.org’s editorial decisions, and the views expressed successful our articles bash not needfully bespeak the views of the foundation. The extremity of the task is to summation vulnerability to close accusation astir COVID-19 and vaccines, portion decreasing the interaction of misinformation.