Post Comes to Premature Conclusions About COVID-19 Omicron Variant Severity

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SciCheck Digest

It’s not known yet whether the omicron variant causes much oregon little terrible COVID-19 than the delta variant, though immoderate preliminary indications suggest omicron infections mightiness beryllium milder. A Facebook station nevertheless claims, without evidence, that the “toxicity” of omicron is 5 times higher than delta and that its mortality complaint is higher.

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Since the discovery in precocious November of a new, highly mutated mentation of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, scientists person been scrambling to larn much astir it. First reported to the World Health Organization by South Africa connected Nov. 24, the omicron variant has sparked interest crossed the globe due to the fact that of fears that it mightiness beryllium capable to evade immunity and beryllium much transmissible than the already highly contagious delta variant.

As we’ve reported, the omicron variant contains a worrying acceptable of mutations, immoderate of which are predicted to assistance successful viral transmission oregon get astir protective neutralizing antibodies. In addition, the variant is spreading rapidly successful South Africa.

While much accusation is coming successful each day, large questions remain, including however transmissible the microorganism is and however terrible its infections are. Some aboriginal grounds suggests omicron cases whitethorn beryllium little terrible compared with different variants, but it’s excessively soon to cognize for sure.

Despite the uncertainty, a fashionable Facebook post baselessly claims omicron is particularly virulent.

“Be definite to deterioration a mask, due to the fact that the caller COVID-Omicron variant coronavirus is different, deadly and not casual to observe correctly,” the station misleadingly reads, earlier going connected to database symptoms it claims are of the variant.

“Of course, the toxicity of COVID-Omicron is 5 times higher than that of the Delta variant, and the mortality complaint is besides higher than that of Delta,” the station continues, adding that omicron is “highly harmful, the microorganism is highly virulent, and the fatal complaint is high.”

It besides states, without evidence, that the omicron “wave … is much deadly than the archetypal question of Covid-19.”

Omicron Severity Unknown, But Possibly Reduced

As we’ve explained before, it’s inactive excessively aboriginal to archer if the omicron variant is much oregon little virulent than delta, fto unsocial to enactment a quantitative estimation connected it — and immoderate close appraisal of severity volition instrumentality immoderate time. But determination are immoderate signs that omicron infections mightiness beryllium little severe.

Dr. Angelique Coetzee, seat of the South African Medical Association, and a doc who has been treating immoderate of the aboriginal omicron cases successful that country, has told multiple news outlets that omicron cases truthful acold look to beryllium precise mild, with an antithetic presumption that is mostly constricted to utmost fatigue, assemblage aches and pains, and headache.

Some of her comments, including the thought that patients bash not look to person a terrible cough, whitethorn beryllium the root of immoderate of the symptoms listed successful the post.

It’s hard to know, though, whether this is afloat typical oregon volition alteration successful the future. As of Nov. 28, the WHO has said that determination “is presently nary accusation to suggest that symptoms associated with Omicron are antithetic from those from different variants.”

According to a Dec. 4 report on the archetypal acceptable of apt omicron cases astatine Steve Biko/Tshwane District Hospital Complex successful Pretoria, South Africa, less patients person needed supplemental oxygen than before, and much cases are what physicians determination are calling “incidental” cases, oregon instances of COVID-19 that were detected successful radical who were recovered to beryllium infected erstwhile they underwent the required investigating for infirmary admission, but were admitted for different reason.

The wide in-hospital decease complaint is besides little — 6.6%, implicit the past 2 weeks, compared with 17% implicit the past 18 months.

“It’s excessively aboriginal to beryllium capable to find the precise severity of disease,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the manager of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explained successful a Dec. 7 coronavirus briefing, successful reviewing the existing grounds connected the topic. “But it appears that with the cases that are seen, we are not seeing a precise terrible illustration of disease.”

“It mightiness beryllium — and I underscore mightiness — beryllium little severe, arsenic shown by the ratio of hospitalizations per fig of caller cases,” helium continued. “However, this could beryllium influenced by the information that galore successful this peculiar cohort are young individuals. The infirmary enactment seems to beryllium little and the usage of supplemental oxygen needs to beryllium less. Again, I caution you. These are inactive preliminary.”

Because hospitalizations and deaths are lagging indicators, Fauci said, it would apt instrumentality “at slightest different mates of weeks” earlier scientists person a “good handle” connected the comparative severity of omicron, and “a fewer weeks thereafter” to person a “really bully handle” connected the subject.

Another issue making it hard to archer whether the seemingly little terrible cases genuinely bespeak a driblet successful the virus’s virulence is COVID-19 immunity successful the population, either from erstwhile corruption oregon vaccines. South Africa has a comparatively debased vaccination rate, but some experts estimate that astir each South Africans person already had COVID-19. If that’s the case, past it could good beryllium that the reduced severity reflects the information that astir radical are already mostly protected from terrible disease, adjacent if they are susceptible to reinfection with this variant.

Misleading Claim About Diagnostic Testing

The Facebook station besides baselessly claims that the omicron variant is “not casual to observe correctly” and suggests that cases of the variant are hard to diagnose with existent tests.

“The effect of nasal swab trial for COVID-Omicron is usually negative, and the fig of mendacious antagonistic cases of nasopharyngeal trial is increasing,” the station reads.

There is nary grounds that the omicron variant is causing COVID-19 tests to neglect connected immoderate ample scale. Dozens of countries astir the satellite person been capable to place omicron infections by sequencing the viruses contiguous successful specimens that have tested positive with existing diagnostic tests.

“The wide utilized PCR tests proceed to observe infection, including corruption with Omicron,” the World Health Organization said successful its Nov. 28 update on the variant, referring to polymerase concatenation absorption tests that cheque diligent samples for the beingness of SARS-CoV-2 familial material.

The Food and Drug Administration has warned that 1 peculiar PCR trial authorized and utilized successful the U.S. is expected to beryllium incapable to detect the omicron variant, since the trial lone looks for 1 abbreviated agelong of the viral sequence, and omicron happens to person a deletion successful that spot.

But the trial is conscionable 1 of galore disposable molecular tests — the bureau has authorized 267, arsenic of Dec. 9 — and is not thought to beryllium utilized for high-volume testing. (The FDA identified 1 different authorized PCR trial that would beryllium affected, but it hasn’t been distributed to anyone.) PCR tests that cheque for different parts of the viral genome oregon astatine aggregate antithetic spots are not expected to person problems identifying omicron infections.

As we person explained before, galore omicron viruses person a deletion successful the S, oregon spike, gene, that affects a fewer fashionable PCR tests. But it’s turning retired to beryllium a diagnostic alternatively than a bug.

Because of the deletion, galore omicron samples won’t trial affirmative for the S cistron — dissimilar with astir delta samples — but are affirmative for the different 2 cistron targets. This means the trial inactive works to diagnose omicron patients, portion astatine the aforesaid clip flagging imaginable omicron cases.

As the WHO writes successful its Dec. 7 play epidemiological update, this “S-gene people nonaccomplishment (SGTF) tin beryllium utilized arsenic a marker suggestive of Omicron,” though the bureau says sequencing should beryllium done to corroborate that, since different variants are known to person the deletion.

While evaluations are continuing, determination is also no evidence to bespeak that much accelerated but little sensitive antigen tests, which look for the beingness of viral proteins in a sample, are incapable to observe omicron infections.

The WHO’s update notes that preliminary grounds from labs “independently confirms” that antigen tests tin accurately diagnose omicron infections, and that arsenic of Dec. 7, “there person been nary reported misdiagnoses (false antagonistic results)” for immoderate WHO-authorized diagnostic trial due to the fact that of the omicron variant.

South Africa’s Coetzee, successful her interview with Canada’s Global News, besides said that antigen tests were “definitely” inactive moving against omicron, though she cautioned against investigating excessively soon erstwhile symptoms develop.

Post Correctly Urges Caution, But Forgets Vaccination

While overmuch of the station is unsubstantiated, peculiarly its claims astir illness severity, it urges readers to beryllium cautious of the caller variant.

“Please beryllium careful, debar crowded places, support a region of 1.5m adjacent successful unfastened places, deterioration a double-layer mask, deterioration suitable masks, and lavation your hands often erstwhile everyone has nary symptoms (coughing oregon sneezing),” the station reads.

Those are all recommended precautions that nationalist wellness officials are emphasizing to support radical from some omicron and the still-dominant delta, truthful that’s bully advice.

It’s worthy noting that adjacent if omicron corruption results successful little terrible disease, if it’s much transmissible, it could inactive extremity up hurting much people.

“If they’re allowed to dispersed unchecked, adjacent though they’re not individually much virulent oregon lethal, they conscionable make much cases, they enactment unit connected the wellness strategy and much radical die,” Dr. Mike Ryan, enforcement manager of WHO’s wellness emergencies programme, said of coronavirus variants during a Dec. 8 press conference.

The post, however, doesn’t notation vaccination, which is the azygous champion mode to support yourself against COVID-19.

“The azygous large message, if you are offered a vaccine, delight get that vaccine,” said Ryan. “It doesn’t substance what variant you’re doing it for.”

Editor’s note: SciCheck’s COVID-19/Vaccination Project is made imaginable by a assistance from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The instauration has no control over FactCheck.org’s editorial decisions, and the views expressed successful our articles bash not needfully bespeak the views of the foundation. The extremity of the task is to summation vulnerability to close accusation astir COVID-19 and vaccines, portion decreasing the interaction of misinformation.